Research on the role mechanism and scenario prediction of industrial structure upgrading on pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Yellow River Basin

摘要：

CO₂排放与大气污染物的协同减排既是经济社会发展的挑战也是助推高质量发展的重大机遇.分析黄河流域产业结构升级对减污降碳的作用机制并进行可视化分析,运用STIRPAT模型进行实证分析,在此基础上创新性地模拟预测黄河流域未来减污降碳趋势,研究发现，整体上黄河流域研究期内减污降碳呈现向好趋势,其中中卫、石嘴山以及内蒙古乌海情况较为严重,是减污降碳的重点区域;黄河流域产业结构高级化的减污降碳效应较合理化更优,经济增长和人口增加均利于抑污减排;在区域异质性上,中下游地区产业结构升级的减污降碳效应相比上游地区更好;加快产业转型升级、稳定人口增长速率和经济高质量发展是黄河流域减污降碳的最优路径.

The coordinated reduction of CO₂, emissions and atmospheric pollutants is both a challenge for economic and social development and a significant opportunity to promote high-quality growth. This study analyzes the mechanism by which industrial structure upgrading in the Yellow River Basin contributes 1o pollution and carbon reduction, accompanied by a visual-taton analvsis. An ompitfteal analysis is condtoted using the STIRPAT model, and based on this, an inmnovative simtlaton predicts future trends in pollution and carbon reduction in the Yellow River Basin. The study flinds that: overall, the Yellow River Basin shows an improving trend in pollution and carbon reduction during the study period, with Zhongwei, Shizuishan, and Wuhai in Inner Mongolia facing more severe situations and thus being key areas for pollution and carbon reduction efforts; the pollution and carbon reduction effect of the advanced industrial structure in the Yellow River Basin is superior to that of the indtstrinl rattonalization, and both economtc gtrowth aind populaton increase are conducive to pollution contrtol and emission reduction; regarding regional heterogeneity, the pollution and carbon reduction effect of industrial structure upgrading is better in the middle and lower reaches than in the upper readhes: accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading, stabilizing population growth, and promoting high-quality economic development constitute the optimal path for pollution and carbon reduction in the Yellow River Basin.

作者: 

王淑英,姚福伟,王珂珂

Wang Shuying,Yao Fuwei,Wang Keke

机构地区：

郑州大学管理学院

引用本文：

王淑英，姚福伟，王珂珂。产业结构升级对黄河流域减污降碳的作用机制及情景预测研究[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2026,54(1):35-46.(Wang Shuying, Yao Fuwei,Wang Keke,Research on the role mechanism and scenario prediction of industrial structure upgrading on pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the Yellow River Basin[J].Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2026,54(1):35-46.DOI:10.16366/j.cnki.1000-2367.2024.11.29.0003.)

基金：

河南省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目；河南省软科学研究计划项目；国家自然科学基金

关键词：

黄河流域;减污降碳;产业结构合理化;产业结构高级化;影响机制;情景模拟

the Yellow River Basin; pollution and carbon reduction; rationalization of industrial structure; advanced in-dustrial structure; impact mechanism; scenario simulation

分类号：

X321;X821

产业结构升级对黄河流域减污降碳的作用机制及情景预测研究.pdf