The battle of hand and mouth : population factors and regional economic development in nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin

摘要：

”人”是解释区域经济发展异质性的核心，人口要素对区域经济发展的影响既有可能是正向的也有可能是负向的，简单归纳为“手口之争”。在生产函数的分析框架内,将人口与区域经济发展核心要素归纳为要素的总量投人、结构配比和使用效率，并基于黄河流域九省(区)相关人口和经济面板数据，对人口要素在区域经济发展中的作用与影响机制进行假设验证,研究发现：人口总量增长产生的规模正效应和人口年龄结构老化抑制区域经济发展的负效应得到了验证，人口流动的空间集聚效应没有通过验证；结合不同区域禀赋差异分析,可以推论出人口要素对区域经济发展的影响既与人口要素特征相关，也与不同区域所处的经济发展阶段有关；基于有效劳动的中介效应，分析得出人口数量规模和年龄结构的变动既会从供给端的“手”，也会从需求端的“口”影响区域经济发展，而人口质量对区域经济发展的影响主要体现为供给端“手”的作用。总之，应增加人口要素正向效应变动以弥补人口要素负向效应变动，以人口的高质量发展促进黄河流域的高质量发展。

People are the core of explaining the heterogeneity of regional economic development, and the impact of population factors on regional economic development can be either positive or negative, which can be simply summarized as theThe Battle of Hand and Mouth. Within the analysis framework of the production function, the article summarizes the core elements of population and regional economic development as the total input, structural ratio, and utilization eficiency of production factors. Based on the relevant population and economic panel data of the nine provinces along the Yellow River, the article verifies the hypothesis of the role and impact mechanism of population factors in regional economic development, Research has found that the positive effect of population growth on scale and the negative effect of aging population age structure on regional economic development have been validated, while the spatial agglomeration effect of population ruraFurban mobility has not been validated; By analyzing the differences in regional endowments, it can be inferred that the impact of population factors on regional economic development is not only related to the characteristics of population factors, but also to the economic development stages in different regions: Based on the intermediary effect analvsis of effective labor, it is concluded that changes in population size and age structure will affect regional economic development from both the supply side and the demand side, The impact of population quality on regional economic development is mainly reflected in the role of the supply side, In short, it is necessary to inerease the positive effect changes of population factors to compensate for the negative effect changes of population factors, and promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin with high-quality population development.

作者：

薛君，刘晓晨

XueJun,LiuXiaochen

机构地区：

河南省社会工作与社会治理软科学研究基地

引用本文：

薛君，刘晓晨。手口之争：黄河流域九省(区)的人口要素与区域经济发展[ ] ].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版)，2025,53(4).1-10.( Xue lun, Liu Xiaochen,The battle of hand and mouth: population factors and regional economic development in nine provinces(regions) of the Yellow River Basin [ ] ].Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2025,53(4):1-10.D01:10.16366/j.cnki.1000-2367.2024.06.03.0001.)

基金：

国家社会科学基金

关键词：

黄河流域；区域经济发展；人口要素；生产函数

the Yellow River Basin; regional economic development; population factors; production Function

分类号：

F249.21

手口之争:黄河流域九省(区)的人口要素与区域经济发展.pdf